Overview
Projected revenue estimates for a new car wash are a key part of development underwriting. Lenders and investors want projections that are grounded in site realities, capacity limits, and realistic ramp-up timing, not just optimistic targets.
Start with physical capacity
A projection should reflect how many cars can realistically be processed during peak periods, given equipment speed, queue design, and staffing where applicable. Capacity constraints set the ceiling for revenue.
Convert capacity into volume assumptions
Volume assumptions should reflect local traffic patterns, visibility, access, and competition. For many new washes, the ramp-up period is the most important part of the model because early months are rarely fully stabilized.
Pricing and mix assumptions
Revenue estimates depend on average ticket and product mix. If memberships are part of the plan, the estimate should include realistic membership counts and a reasonable view of churn over time.
Seasonality and weather variability
New wash projections should include seasonal patterns and normal variability. Lenders typically discount projections that assume identical monthly performance throughout the year.
What lenders consider credible
- Conservative ramp-up with clear milestones
- Assumptions tied to site reality such as access, stacking, and competition
- Clear pricing logic that matches the local market
- Simple, supportable math that can be explained in plain terms
Bottom line
Credible projected revenue estimates are built from capacity, realistic volume assumptions, and conservative ramp-up timing. The best projections are easy to explain and easy to defend.